Man, I hate this one.

Blue Owl (OWL) became the poster child for everything people fear about private credit.

Investors asked for $5.4 billion back in a single quarter; the firm had to cap withdrawals on two funds, and the stock went from $25 down to $7.95.

Then two things changed.

Blue Owl sold $1.4 billion of loans to institutional buyers at book value. When a market accuses you of hiding losses, selling at book is the only answer that shuts anybody up.

Redemptions stopped too. Two quarters running, 90% of flagship fund investors haven't asked for a dollar back.

The chart is where I am on this one.

It broke back above $10 at the start of August, which always gives a stock credibility and brings institutions back. Shares then ripped 25% and cleared the 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2025.

My scoring model turned bullish on the 50-day on August 3rd, right before that break.

Then over the last two weeks it worked off a badly overbought reading and stayed above that 200-day the whole time, which is the kind of digestion that leads somewhere.