Wall Street Says Strong Buy. I'm Looking Lower.

IonQ (IONQ) posted the best quarter in its history last month and the stock is down 43%.

Revenue up 287% to $80.1 million, guidance raised, fifth-generation systems shipping, $3 billion in the bank. The stock went from $70 to $40 anyway.

It’s not a company specific problem.

Rigetti (RGTI) dropped 41% over the same stretch while IBM lost 12% and Honeywell (HON) 6%. The established quantum names barely moved and the pure plays got taken apart.

One number explains it.

IonQ carries a $14.7 billion market cap on roughly $250 million of revenue, so almost everything it’s worth sits in systems nobody has built yet. That makes it one of the longest duration assets in the market.

And the 10-year Treasury yield keeps making new highs. When rates rise, the market discounts the furthest-out things hardest, and IonQ is about as far out as a public company gets.

The chart says it is not finished.

Price sits below the 20-day, the 50-day and the 200-day, all three declining, with the 20-day about to cross below the 50-day again. RSI is near 46, so there is no oversold condition here to bounce off.